April 8th Loometh For Windows XP Users...

(Photo credit: Wikipedia)

On April the 8th Microsoft will end support for Windows XP and Office 2013.

A lot of people are still using Windows XP and for good reason. And it's not just because they like the Teletubbies' home field on their desktop. The old adage 'if it ain't broke, don't fix it' applies in spades - Windows XP was perfectly functional and the iteration of Windows that followed it, the infamous Windows Vista was not terribly functional. Those of us who made the leap and upgraded slavishly to the new new thing almost immediately regretted rushing in where angels fear to tread.

Vista sucked. We were consigned to long, aching pauses as we watched that coruscating blue wheel rotating smugly on the screen we so desperately wanted to be Bill Gates' face. We learned to loathe the smug gits who'd held out and weren't going through our pain. And I'm not even going to talk about what happened next.

Nobody needs to be reminded of the Windows 7 Launch Party. Although if anyone can explain how this ultimate example of gibbering incompetence dressed up as a marketing stunt conceived by a four year old raccoon whose brain has been eaten by vampire slugs hasn't been deleted, I would be grateful.

Now The Ones We Left Behind are being told to upgrade to Windows 8 or face annihilation and exile to The Great Unsupported. I got a spammy mailer from Microsoft Saudi Arabia claiming if I don't upgrade I could face loss of data, lack of connectivity and limited access as well as lack of hardware and software support. It's all a bit of a scare tactic, but XP is now becoming long in the tooth and hasn't seen a service pack since April 2008. Which means XP's been effectively staked out and waiting to die for six years.

The person I feel sorry for in all of this is my mum. She's 87 and she's not about to learn Windows 8.0 so she can shop online (Tesco's online shopping has been a life saver for her) and Skype family and friends. Nice one, Microsoft. Thanks.

I'm buying her an iPad instead. One tiny user, a squillionth of that gargantuan user base. But yet another human story behind the migration away from MS' platform.

Is Microsoft Clutching A One Way Ticket To Nowhere?

Image via CrunchBase

Microsoft isn't really as smart as people think and it probably isn't as smart as it thinks it is, either. Its fortunes were set by being in the right place at the right time with a piece of operating system software it didn't actually code - it bought it in. Seattle Computer Products' QDOS was to become PC-DOS and, in a moment of brilliance, was licensed rather than sold outright to IBM for the company's new Personal Computer.

The result was a gravy train for Microsoft, which promptly did the dirty on IBM by licensing MS-DOS to makers of PC clones. Why IBM put up with it is anyone's guess. but by the time Compaq released an 80386 based machine ahead of IBM and took effective leadership of the PC market, Microsoft had its own version of a goose in every pot and a wagon in every barn - pretty much every PC in the world had Windows and Office installed and MS was printing money.

The OS/2 body swerve was a final blow to IBM's dream of getting back dominance of the desktop and was to start the chapter in the company's history where it exited the PC market Jobs' Apple had cheekily welcomed it to in 1981. IBM eventually sold the business - saved, in the meantime, by its ThinkPad laptops - to Lenovo just in time to avoid the current spiralling decline of the PC.

Microsoft was so busy thinking it was smart, rather than being merely an accomplished rider on the PC clone gravy train, it missed the Internet. Entirely. Netscape nearly pulled off its coup - creating a platform for third party software that would disintermediate Windows. But Gates turned MS on a sixpence and brought the company's crushing market dominance to triumph in the 'browser war' that followed. They got in late, but they got in with such venom it appeared they were unstoppable. They weren't.

The win cost Microsoft a punishing - and embarrassing - trial at the hands of the US Department of Justice. Reeling from the whole bruising process, a four year trial ending in 2002, Microsoft found itself fighting a number of persistent enemies, including Sun Microsystems, Oracle and a growing horde of passionate Linux backers - a party that IBM joined with a $10 billion investment in the open source software. By the time the next big thing came, Microsoft missed it as badly as it had the Internet - the trouble was, it wasn't one big thing but several.

Google's IPO in 2004 showed an astonished world how very big the company had grown from absolutely nowhere (today, ten short years later, it's a more valuable company than Microsoft, BTW). Three years later, Steve Jobs launched the iPhone and then Google bought in a piece of software that was to achieve precisely what MS-DOS had achieved almost twenty years earlier for Microsoft. Android.

Meanwhile, Microsoft was busy screwing up Windows in an attempt to rekindle the 'must have this year's version' of the WinTel heyday. The awful Windows Vista stalled adoption, many electing to stay with the stable and 'not broke' Windows XP. Windows 7 rectified the awfulness of Vista, but arguably it was already too late. People were playing with new toys: tablets. And Microsoft had no way to compete with iOS or Android - and no plan to, either.

Why didn't Microsoft turn on a sixpence again? Because it had nowhere to turn - its dominance of the desktop didn't stretch to the new wireless world of smartphones and tablets. And its eventual attempt to face the conundrum is all too clear from the schizophrenic Windows 8.

But it's bought Nokia - and it has the chance now to join the smartphone and tablet market with a better version of Windows that'll put the faults of Windows 8 (which is an absolutely fabulous mobile OS, strangely enough given Microsoft's long history of awful mobile OSs. Windows CE anyone?) behind it.

Only Microsoft hasn't got a huge and successful content-rich ecosystem like Amazon, Google or Apple. And it doesn't have the support of a wide enough base of applications developers. It's got Bing losing to Google, Azure losing to Amazon - too many fights on too many fronts. And too many innovations taking place away from the source of the majority of Microsoft's revenue - the desktop.

Is the party over? Yes. But does Microsoft have a ticket to the next party?

BlackBerry Down

(Photo credit: Wikipedia)

As anyone who has heard me chatting on the radio (*ahem* Every Thursday from 12.45 on 103.8FM's 'Lunchtime Live') will attest, I have long been fascinated by the precipitous dynamics of the smartphone market. In the past five years, we have seen shifts in technology and corporate fortunes on an unprecedented scale - no other industry in history has impelled such meteoric change at such speed and with such scope.

Five years ago, Nokia was the world's biggest mobile maker and a dominant force. They invented the smartphone. They had over 49% of the global smartphone market, represented 4% of Finland's GDP and boasted a market capitalisation of over 110 billion Euro. Something like 25,000 lost jobs later, Nokia's stock was rated junk, its market share stood  at something like 3% and Microsoft snapped it up for a tad over 5 billion Euro. Remarkably, the man who presided over what must stand as one of the biggest, fastest falls in corporate history, Stephen Elop, looks set to make $25 million from that sale. He came from Microsoft, spent three years destroying Nokia and now he's going back to a $25 million bonus and a stab at Ballmer's job. No wonder people call him the 'Trojan Horse'.

Over the same period, 'troubled' BlackBerry has also managed to transition from global dominance to failure - although its decline and fall has been more recent, its position protected by its strength in the conservative corporate market. It hasn't finished falling by any means, either. BlackBerry's market capitalisation has plummeted from a high of over $70 billion to under $5 billion, while its user base has actually increased, from 8 million-odd in 2007 to almost 80 million in 2013. That hasn't been enough to stem a whopping billion dollar Q2 loss - or the haemorrhage of 4,500 jobs - 40% of the company's global workforce. This is clearly a company in terrible trouble.

It's the speed of these falls that is so stunning. And the speed of the rises, too. Of course, when Steve Jobs took to the stage back in 2007 in his polo-neck and announced the future of the mobile, many in the industry had a good old laugh. Steve Ballmer, brilliantly, led the giggling. You can still enjoy the Great Visionary's laughter today thanks to YouTube. Nokia and BlackBerry weren't far behind in the hooning. But it wasn't actually Jobs banging the nails into coffins - that took Google and Android.

Google mimicked the rise of the PC by providing an 'open top' standard for multiple manufacturers with Android. Once again, it's Mac vs PC, only Microsoft and IBM are no longer players. IBM had the sense to get out, because it could. Microsoft didn't even see it coming - not as remarkable as it may seem: those with long memories will recall the company's 'visionary' leadership missed the Internet, albeit performing a remarkable pirouette on a sixpence to recover the existentially threatening situation its arrogance and lack of awareness created. This time around, the dynamics are different and Microsoft can't depend on market dominance to bludgeon its way out of trouble. And it is in an awful lot of trouble.

But Microsoft's headlines are yet to come. Today belongs to BlackBerry, the company that's had to write off almost a billion dollars against its unsold inventory of unwanted smartphones, having missed its sales targets by over 50%. Now the company itself is for sale and it's a cheaper buy than Nokia. The question is, who wants 80 million users who are, undoubtedly almost without exception, wondering whether they'll go for the iPhone or a Samsung.

Fascinatingly, BlackBerry was to have rolled out BB Messenger apps for Android and iPhone this weekend just past, but they appear to have totally blown the rollout and have withdrawn the apps after getting hit by over a million downloads, despite only short availability on small regional platforms. Screwing this one up was a real Barbarians at the Gate 'light the smokeless cigarette with a match' moment for BlackBerry.

By the way, following that Mac vs PC history repeats itself analogy, I'd guess that makes Samsung Compaq which famously led the charge against IBM by having the sheer balls to release an 80386 machine before Big Blue and rip the PC market rug from under IBM's feet...

Windows 8. Regrets, I've Had A Few...

I have to report, the road  to Windows 8 has not been a smooth journey. There's much to like about Microsoft's new OS but the whole experience has left me feeling rather as if I'm the only person in this place to have actually upgraded to it.

First there was the great Firefox debacle - the badly documented fact that Firefox doesn't support Windows 8 (and, by the way, Chrome doesn't support Windows RT) only came to light after I had gone on a long journey to find out why Skype had stopped working. It's stopped working again but this time around I simply can't be bothered. I'm using the iPad for that instead.

Now Explorer, by no means my browser of choice, has also stopped working and I don't know what to do. There's no obvious option to repair or reinstall it. You can almost hear Barney's whiny Midwestern sing-song, 'Heyy, li'l guy! That's under the bonnet! You don't wanna go snoopin' around under the bonnet!' The support forums for Windows 8 have each got four or five topics on them, as if there are only about a hundred people in the world using this software. Microsoft support is so hard to find (particularly with a half-broken browser), I've just given up and installed Chrome.

The great selling point for Windows 8 is that it's touch enabled. If you've found yourself habitually reaching out to swipe a laptop screen, you'll appreciate the fact that you can now do it and have something happen. All of the great versions of Windows have had a 'raison d'etre' - Windows 3.0 sealed Microsoft's outright leadership not only of the OS market but of the application market, by breaking the DOS 640k barrier and simultaneously leading competitors to develop for OS/2. Windows NT didn't break. And Windows 7 wasn't  Vista.

With that in mind, Windows 8's great USP is touch, but it hedges its bets with a desktop. So you have, effectively, two interfaces - the 'Metro' swipey interface and a desktop interface that isn't quite so touch friendly. So don't go putting that mouse on Dubizzle quite yet.

There are some parts of Windows 8 that really work. It's more intuitive and things are generally where you'd expect to find 'em. There's very little 'getting started' help - I had to Google how to close an app (a much clunkier gesture than Apple's) because there was nobody from MS telling you. Likewise, the relationship between the Metro interface and Desktop is something you're left to find out for yourself. Microsoft's Mail app is cool, but won't let you use the Search features within Gmail. It all feels a bit 'give a little, take a little' to tell you the truth.

And this is why I fear for Microsoft and Windows 8. If there were a major, mass-market interface competitor (if Google were hardcore about Chrome OS), this would be a very dangerous time indeed for Microsoft.

Windows 8 is an inflection point - and inflection points in technology are always terribly dangerous times. We're locked into technology by familiarity, and the greater our investment in an interface, the greater our 'stickiness' as users is. When you ask me to relearn that interface, you're asking me to go through the same pain barrier as deserting you and going with another provider.

The trouble with Windows 8 is it's a halfway house. The next version of Windows will have to complete the move to touch and finally junk the desktop, because Windows needs to do something huge, not something whimpery and tentative. That means applications written for touch - and there are very few of those out there right now outside games and the like. At this rate of adoption, developers won't be leaping to embrace Windows 8, either.

Having moved to Windows 8, I would probably counsel anyone thinking about it to stick with Windows 7. The pain of the move has been infinitely greater than any benefits I have gained. If that's the feedback from other users, the already reportedly slow adoption of Windows 8 is not going to speed up anytime soon.

I never thought I'd see the day, but Microsoft looks extremely vulnerable right now. 

Vista

I’ve tried not to post this post, God knows but I’ve tried. However, some things I guess are inevitable and this event certainly seems to be.

I’ve upgraded to a new notebook, the Lenovo T61. It seems perfectly competent, but I was inordinately fond of my old T43 and really wanted the same but faster. The T61 is undoubtedly more powerful, but is actually bigger. I didn’t really want bigger. I should have waited for the incredibly sexy X300, I know.

But it’s not the Lenovo ruining my life. It’s Microsoft Bloody Windows Bloody Vista.

It’s hard to imagine anyone purposefully creating a more pointless, dumb and fundamentally irritating piece of software. Windows Vista is like having a constant visual conversation with Barney. Every time you try to achieve or accomplish anything, there’s a cuddly-purple-dinosaur-like dialogue box asking you if you really want to do that or telling you, for some irritating and unfathomable reason, that you can’t do it. Sometimes it offers you help and when you finally wade through a dense jungle of awful dialogue boxes to link to the Microsoft Loves You™ website, it smugly tells you that it can’t help you at all, really. It was just, one presumes, kidding. I’m already sick of waiting anything up to a minute for Windows Explorer to open. And I’m heartily sick of watching a damn blue circle coruscate calmingly as I wait for something, anything, to happen in response to my inputs. I haven’t spent so much time waiting for stuff to happen on a computer for a long time. But then it was complex stuff like drawing a fractal. Now I’m waiting for a basic dialogue box to appear.

I have upgraded to a significantly more powerful computer in order to wait longer for basic system events to take place. Explain that to me. It’s like wading in digital molasses. I’m slowly drowning in a sea of slo-mo, pricked to incandescence by stupid dialogue boxes telling me that the keyboard is the tappy thing in front of me, that I am a bipedal carbon-based lifeform and any number of blindingly obvious infodings that I simply do not want. I feel like a bull being goaded into blind fury before the toreador finally brings me to my knees with a cry of ‘Vistaaaa’.

I’m getting used to some new joys, too. For instance, the joy of finding my DNS settings or my browser homepage arbitrarily reset. The joy of hardware that refuses to work (Vista has convinced itself that the rather excellent Lenovo biometrics system is not connected to the computer).

Every time you try to achieve or accomplish anything, it’s like having a mad mid-Western voice suddenly explode in your head: “Hey! You’re trying to change those settings! That’s under the bonnet stuff, li’l buddy! Are you real sure you wanna go lookin’ under the bonnet?”

“Heyyyy! You’re sending an email! That could be real insecure! Press OK to send the email or just go on ahead an’ press Help to shoot yourself!”

I might sound angry beyond the point of reason. I am. I want XP back. Actually, I want Windows 98 back. Actually, scratch that. I want DOS back. I’ve been forced to the realisation that I’m using 2GB of RAM, 160GB of hard disk and a dual pipelined multiprocessing 64 bit microprocessor clocked at over 2 GHz to type and send letters 90% of the time. I used to use a 64 Kbyte, 1 MHz machine to do that and it was just fine. The only difference is that I used to print and send those letters and now I email them. How can it be possible to do so little with so much computing power and resource? Because there’s a fat, stupid bloated wodge of software between me and productivity and it’s called Windows Bloody Vista.

And yes, thank you. I do feel better now.

What to do?

This most celebrated of UAE ‘Hinglish’ phrases is the ultimate in fatalism. It means, ‘You’re so screwed, you might as well just give up and stop breathing now, pal’, but is infinitely more polite as it also involves a degree of 'And it's not my fault, it's out of my hands and in those of our creator'.

It is invariably delivered with an inclination of the head and a smile. Your electricity has been cut off because of a clerical error, it’s Thursday evening and the reconnection team have all gone home for the weekend and you face at least 72 hours in the sweltering heat with no power and water through no fault of your own. You’re raging and the man from the electricity smiles at you and shakes his head, saying: “What to do?”

Pals Dom and Scott and I thought it would be a great Whisky brand for the Indian market and many a boozy evening has consequently descended into brainstorming sessions for the commercials.

Actor is sitting, cross-legged on the compacted earth, in front of the ruins of a Malabari house. There are coconut palms waving gently in the sun behind him. He’s wearing a shirt and lunghi as he addresses the camera.

“House is burning. Insurance not updated. Wife is leaving. Dowry being refundable. I am having nothing left. Even children are going back to grandmother.”

Actor grins broadly, raising glass of whisky with lots of ice cubes in to camera and inclines head in time-honoured fashion.

“What to do?”

The variations on the theme are, of course, awesome.

It was a phrase I was able to use this morning, as young Carrington was heard fuming and fulminating as he tried to struggle with his new home PC. Apparently he was having some issues with something called Windows Vista that was causing his sparkly new slice of integrated technology platform to blow raspberries, generally misbehave, lock up, whistle Dixie and on the whole refuse to come out and play. I waited until he finished his litany of driver issues and errors and then expressed my sympathy appropriately.

“Yes, I understand the severity of the situation. But what to do?”

I shall not record his response for fear it may offend the delicate ears of the genteel reader…

Microsoft Gets Spanked

I have always been something of a fan of Arab News' Molouk Ba-Isa. Unremittingly grumpy, difficult and highly opinionated, her weekly technology column often informs, interests and generally amuses me. I have worked with her many times over the years and have delivered many a faintly trembling executive into her tender care. I remember one being told, by way of an introduction: "I hope Alexander briefed you about how difficult I am."

Alexander is usually too amused to say much. I've always been a sucker for a misanthrope.

But this week's column is something of a car-crash experience. I don't want to look, but I'm drawn back to it time and time again. It should be required reading for anyone who wants to communicate with Middle East markets. It should be on every international technology PR person's training curriculum. It's linked here and it ain't pretty.

Microsoft doled out a lazy press release on the Xbox 360. Molouk doled out the punishment. To be fair, she could have been a lot worse. But it's worth bearing in mind that this is pretty heavy stuff for a media environment like Saudi Arabia, where it is still rare to encounter a critical tone.

What's interesting to me is that her obvious irritation has been triggered by a thoughtless communication. A little care and this wouldn't have happened at all...